Chris O'Leary's 2016
Pitcher Injury Predictions

This page lists some of the predictions I made during 2016. For a list of all of my pitcher injury predictions, see...

• The List

2016 Predictions

I have made a number of predictions about pitchers that have sadly come true, some during 2016 and some earlier. Most of these pitchers' problems can be traced back to one of two flaws...

• Tommy John Twist
• Flat Arm Syndrome

...which are problematic because they tend to create a problem with pitchers' Timing.

Index

Alvarez, Henderson
Appel, Mark
Arroyo, Bronson
Bassitt, Chris
Cashner, Andrew
Cole, Gerrit
Darvish, Yu
Foltynewicz, Mike
Gonzales, Marco
Harvey, Matt
Heaney, Andrew
Holland, Derek
Hughes, Phil
Kaprielian, James
Kelly, Joe
Manaea, Sean
Matuella, Michael
Matz, Steven
Parker, Jarrod
Richards, Garrett
Ross, Tyson
Severino, Luis
Smith, Carson
Strasburg, Stephen  
Syndergaard, Noah 
Velasquez, Vincent
Winkler, Daniel
Wood, Alex

Predictions

The following are predictions that came true in 2016. Note that all are independently time-stamped, generally via Twitter.

Alvarez, Henderson

Henderson Alvarez timing looks worse than when I predicted https://t.co/3FTvQ9FUFv trouble https://t.co/jMhxasp6Uy https://t.co/QQT2a4PFRQ

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) February 29, 2016

Appel, Mark

I see some stuff in Mark Appel's mechanics that make me concerned. He's going to stumble at some point. pic.twitter.com/ix6npnyinG

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 24, 2014

. @bdelbanco Appel, like many of these pitchers, may HIT the majors as starters but I'm skeptical about whether will they STICK as starters.

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) April 4, 2015

Arroyo, Bronson

I have updated my piece on Hyperabduction to discuss Bronson Arroyo's problems.

Bassitt, Chris

I have a hard time seeing Chris Bassitt lasting as a starter. Bad glove side. Low elbows. Borderline timing. pic.twitter.com/UuTCOBgtwy

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) March 9, 2016

Cashner, Andrew

MLB Network guys talking Andrew Cashner and ignoring his (problematic) pitching mechanics, tempo, and #Timing pic.twitter.com/fmbKjAcx9N

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) September 6, 2015

Cole, Gerrit

I've addressed Gerrit Cole's borderline at best timing before. Hard on arm. Root cause is https://t.co/6gerSfPTAJ pic.twitter.com/Gccvm3D21b

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) April 10, 2016

Darvish, Yu

I've seen a number of pics of Darvish that suggest nothing has changed, so I don't see his health staying good. pic.twitter.com/6VNRvCEE0y

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 24, 2016

Seen a few pics of Yu Darvish that suggest SIGNIFICANT mechanical changes. No Inverted L. https://t.co/S6mfpizLg6 But will it last?

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) March 9, 2016

With talk of Yu Darvish's perfect pitching mechanics, time to revisit story of Mark Prior... https://t.co/MT8KM61LyD pic.twitter.com/Q1ddDcX1yQ

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) January 21, 2016

Foltynewicz, Mike

Here's the reason for concerns about Mike Foltynewicz's elbow and, eventually, his shoulder. Not a starter. #Timing pic.twitter.com/rXrLN02Ha8

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) August 9, 2015

. @FourScore199 Miller, Wood, Foltynewicz. Braves have a major problem w/ scouting and apparently are blind to it. pic.twitter.com/ocQ3GJBpcS

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 29, 2015

Gonzales, Marco

Marco Gonzales has a stall/hitch in his arm swing due to elbow-y, IR, & Premature Pronation. https://t.co/6gerSfPTAJ pic.twitter.com/UfphmZXgfh

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) January 16, 2016

In sum, Marco Gonzales problem = Premature Pronation on some pitches creating tension & delaying external rotation. pic.twitter.com/z8446drcR0

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) November 18, 2015

I REALLY like Marco Gonzales' mechanics, but that little twist of his pitching arm side wrist makes me a bit nervous. pic.twitter.com/s6S7G7OR1Y

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) April 22, 2015

Harvey, Matt

My analysis of Matt Harvey's pitching mechanics explains how I saw his elbow injury coming, but here are some tweets from this year that explain why I was concerned about his shoulder in general and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in particular due to a problem I call Hyperabduction.

Problem with hyperabduction in pitchers is u can end up squeezing stuff against the acromion or clavicle. Can > TOS. pic.twitter.com/yhyg3yg42E

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) March 28, 2016

These recent Matt Harvey hyperabduction pics were what made me wonder about TOS. https://t.co/5I79SHboos pic.twitter.com/UrxmnMpPi7

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) April 4, 2016

Harvey vs. Marlins. Combines a timing problem with premature pronation and hyperabduction. https://t.co/hViwvC2TqB pic.twitter.com/5jX36Vt72A

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) March 29, 2016

When Matt Harvey breaks again, this is why. Didn't change anything after my 1st prediction. https://t.co/hViwvC2TqB pic.twitter.com/BhJSJD1mcG

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) April 7, 2016

Matt Harvey's issue isn't just that he makes Power T. He holds it into foot strike. Plus PP. https://t.co/hwAkBddxG3 pic.twitter.com/hfGOcO3f4W

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 6, 2016

Every time I think the issue's not Matt Harvey's shoulder, he makes me wonder if it is. https://t.co/hViwvBLi21 pic.twitter.com/QwUSrPlcJc

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 16, 2016

Another scary recent pic of Matt Harvey that suggests recent improvement is due more to a work-around than a fix. pic.twitter.com/nCP6NWi7M3

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) June 18, 2016

For him to last, Harvey needs shut down and rebuild his mechanics. Not gonna happen, so shoulder likely goes next. https://t.co/hViwvBLi21

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 4, 2016

Heaney, Andrew

. @pedromoura @Buster_ESPN Heaney has Premature Pronation https://t.co/6gerSfPTAJ which can cause a Timing problem. pic.twitter.com/NI2ZkQEGE3

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) April 6, 2016

Holland, Derek

Someone asked a/b Derek Holland. Shows the ball to CF. Compromises arm action. Note frames from high speed video. pic.twitter.com/zPtDIk27Kf

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) July 17, 2015

Hughes, Phil

What I said a/b Phil Hughes few weeks ago. People say I make lots of predictions to get one hit. I say, "Just wait." pic.twitter.com/dFscTucnyo

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) August 13, 2015

Notice how Phil Hughes' foot is down, his shoulders r turning & arm is flat? That's REALLY hard on elbow & shoulder. pic.twitter.com/krKKTs5bjq

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) July 23, 2015

It's pics like these that make me think it's just a matter of time before Phil Hughes breaks down. #BadPosition pic.twitter.com/geSAlTJfbQ

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) January 7, 2015

Kaprielian, James

James Kaprielian is fighting a timing problem. Maybe successfully like Max Scherzer. But I'm nervous. #Timing pic.twitter.com/nvx51xwtr9

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) June 10, 2015

Kelly, Joe

Joe Kelly is highly-entertaining, but his pitching mechanics are high-risk. pic.twitter.com/crTLaD8lID

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) April 13, 2015

Manaea, Sean

. @KGrandmeanjean @RatherUnique84 Sean Manaea looks like he has a major timing problem. Best case elbow goes.

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) November 8, 2015

. @KGrandmeanjean Basically everything. Seam Manaea is a reliever-grade arm. pic.twitter.com/Z7bWy8YHXG

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) November 8, 2015

Matuella, Michael

If Matuella doesn't fix his flaw, nothing's gonna change. Sadly, most won't see it as a flaw. https://t.co/rKMnKSPpww pic.twitter.com/OZddA12odf

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) June 5, 2015

Matz, Steven

Here's position of Steven Matz arm when his shoulders start rotating. Early Torso Rotation. https://t.co/AaXGS3xhyP pic.twitter.com/qRiz52oLix

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 12, 2016

Good illustration of the premature Pronation that concerns me about Stephen Matz. https://t.co/6gerSfPTAJ https://t.co/L31JY4XXQe

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) April 1, 2016

As w/ Jacob deGrom, Premature Pronation relevant to Steven Matz Timing problem. Stalls arm. https://t.co/6gerSfPTAJ pic.twitter.com/iAKs6e3SOo

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) March 23, 2016

Parker, Jarrod

Jarrod Parker served as the basis for my piece on Flat Arm Syndrome.

Has Jarrod Parker changed this? If not, nothing is going to change. https://t.co/rH9ObB4qyx pic.twitter.com/vsNQqtIEH9

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) February 22, 2016

Richards, Garrett

. @TWSTEDX Garret Richards pitching mechanics certainly look problematic. I think shoulder OK but wonder a/b elbow. pic.twitter.com/GXj54xlUlD

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) September 15, 2015

Ross, Tyson

Tyson Ross might make a fun summer fling for some team, but I don't think you want to marry him. Tortured mechanics. pic.twitter.com/uyDbRQUtrL

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) July 27, 2015

Severino, Luis

Thing to remember with Luis Severino is early can be as bad as late. Creates a break in kinetic chain. Inefficient. pic.twitter.com/g0RwbGGh4X

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) September 12, 2015

Smith, Carson

Low throwing arm side elbow is VASTLY exaggerated as a problem among throwers. But it IS a problem for Carson Smith. pic.twitter.com/XbKtI2PBr0

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) June 19, 2015

Strasburg, Stephen

Great illustration of why Strasburg still makes me nervous. Flat Arm Syndrome. Labrum? https://t.co/rH9ObBm1q5 pic.twitter.com/edvnuCu5w4

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 29, 2016

Syndergaard, Noah

Noah Syndergaard is one of the pitchers  featured in my piece on vulnerable pitchers at the 2015 All-Star Break.

Ugh, Mets fans... Just saw a clip of Noah Syndergaard. Very Tommy Hanson. https://t.co/69wyntZMb8 Problem w/ scouting? pic.twitter.com/A9QiDDaz6Z

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) March 19, 2015

Watching Noah Syndergaard pitch last night. https://t.co/rLbS6t5gb3 Tempo is too Tommy Hanson for comfort. https://t.co/vZ36RzdoRG

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) June 16, 2016

Syndergaard tempo reminds me of Tommy Hanson. https://t.co/vZ36RzdoRG Note arm position when "Mets" starts to blur. pic.twitter.com/9rWSY5RgNL

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) March 26, 2016

WRT Syndergaard, Verducci, Year After Effect, when NS breaks its due 2 Hanson-esque problem. https://t.co/vZ36RzdoRG pic.twitter.com/RWGL9xH9Ut

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) February 10, 2016

Noah Syndergaard's tempo reminds me of Tommy Hanson. https://t.co/69wyntZMb8 I'd say best case elbow goes first. https://t.co/h9CHorJhyt

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) January 7, 2016

Noah Syndergaard doing his best Tommy Hanson impression. Won't last as a starter. #Timing https://t.co/69wyntIbjA https://t.co/Y3LzpgxY18

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) August 26, 2015

Id b surprised to see syndergaard last all of 2016. https://t.co/0TL23Jo2y9

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) April 19, 2016

Velasquez, Vincent

Not enough info to see if stupid twist in Vincent Velasquez's wrist https://t.co/6gerSfPTAJ is an issue. #ItLikelyIs pic.twitter.com/xKD3IufP79

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) April 19, 2016

See how Vincent Velasquez holding the stupid twist in his wrist into foot plant? That's bad. https://t.co/6gerSfPTAJ pic.twitter.com/CwsN3jfvkO

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) April 20, 2016

Walker, Taijuan

. @AJP13237 Pics I've seen of Taijuan are OK. However I need video b/c I'm concerned I see some Tommy Hanson in him. https://t.co/69wynuyYHM

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) January 13, 2015

Winkler, Daniel

I have put together a new piece called The Truth About the Inverted W as a result of the repeated failure of Dan Winkler's elbow.

There's a (I hope obvious) relevant mechanical difference between Winkler, Ryan & Seaver. https://t.co/aXTYoB2ORQ pic.twitter.com/fjFMzUtU87

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) June 8, 2015

Wood, Alex

. @FourScore199 Miller, Wood, Foltynewicz. Braves have a major problem w/ scouting and apparently are blind to it. pic.twitter.com/ocQ3GJBpcS

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 29, 2015

. @FourScore199 At a minimum, Alex Wood is fighting a timing problem. He has the tells. He might be successful. But I don't think so.

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 29, 2015

About The Author

Chris O'Leary never played baseball beyond grade school due to a shoulder injury suffered due to poor pitching mechanics. As a result, he is focused on ensuring that what happened to him doesn't happen to anybody else. The Epidemic is one way he hopes to achieve that goal.