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Can I predict injuries to baseball pitchers?
Just look at the tweets.
Which, I'll remind you, are time-stamped and non-editable.
The fact is, and contrary to what
Jeff Passan says in The Arm, my understanding of
Matt Harvey's pitching mechanics let me see his injuries coming
again and again and again...
My understanding of
Timing also helps me understand the riskiness of teams' pitching rotations.
I discuss the theory behind my predictions in
The Epidemic.
If you want to keep up on my latest predictions, I tweet
@thepainguy
Chris O'Leary's Pitcher
Injury Predictions
I (publicly) predicted the injuries of...
- Alvarez, Henderson
- Appel, Mark
- Arroyo, Bronson
- Barrett, Aaron
- Bassitt, Chris
- Buehler, Walker
- Bundy, Dylan
- Cain, Matt
-
Carpenter, Chris
- Cashner, Andrew
- Cingrani, Tony
- Cole, Gerrit
- Coleman, Louis
- Cosart, Jarred
- Crow, Aaron
- Darvish, Yu
- deGrom, Jacob
-
Davis, Wade
- Doolittle, Sean
- Eovaldi, Nathan
- Farmer, Buck
- Fernandez, Jose
-
Finnegan, Brandon
- Floyd,
Gavin
-
Garcia, Jaime
- Glasnow, Tyler
- Gonzales, Marco
- Gray, Sonny
- Greene, Shane
- Hahn, Jesse
-
Hanson, Tommy
- Harvey, Hunter
- Harvey, Matt
- Heaney, Andrew
- Holland, Derek
- Holland, Greg
- Hughes, Phil
- Johnson, Josh
- Kaprielian, James
- Kela, Keone
- Kelly, Joe
- Keuchel, Dallas
- Kirby, Nathan
- Lincecum, Tim
- Lugo, Seth
- Lynn, Lance
- Manaea, Sean
- Masterson, Justin
- Matuella, Michael
- Matz, Steven
- McCullers, Lance
- Medlen, Kris
-
Miller, Shelby
- Morton, Charlie
- Nola, Aaron
-
Nova, Ivan
- Ottavino, Adam
- Parker, Jarrod
- Parnell, Bobby
- Perez, Williams
- Pomeranz, Drew
- Price, David
- Prior, Mark
- Qualls, Chad
- Reyes, Alex
-
Reyes, Anthony
- Richards, Garrett
- Rodon, Carlos
- Ross, Joe
-
Ross, Tyson
- Ryan, BJ
- Ryu, Hyun Jin
- Salazar, Danny
-
Santana, Johan
- Severino, Luis
- Smith, Carson
- Stammen, Craig
- Storen, Drew
- Strasburg, Stephen
- Syndergaard, Noah
- Taillon, Jameson
- Tanaka, Masahiro
- Tropeano, Nick
- Vargas, Jason
- Velasquez, Vincent
- Wacha, Michael
-
Walden, Jordan
-
Wainwright, Adam
- Wang, Chien-Ming
- Wheeler, Zack
- Whitley, Chase
- Wilson, CJ
- Winkler, Daniel
- Wood, Alex
- Zimmermann, Jordan
Misses
I view my misses — predictions that I got wrong — as a
learning opportunity; as an opportunity to update and improve my
algorithm.
When Things Change...
My assessments of pitchers' mechanics are based on their
mechanics at the time of the analysis. In some cases, pitchers'
mechanics change, causing pitchers I initially like to break. Some
examples of this are...
Earlier Versions of The List
Earlier versions can be found here...
I have updated my piece on
Hyperabduction to discuss Bronson Arroyo's problems.
Named in my
2014 podcast with Will Leitch.
Matt Cain
Although he isn't definitively dealing with a pitching-related
injury, I believe Jarred Cosart's problems may be due to Thoracic Outlet
Syndrome or something similar and are caused by his high elbows and
resulting timing problem.
Jacob deGrom can't stay healthy because his pitching mechanics
have changed. Jacob deGrom can't stay healthy because, like
Matt Harvey, his
pitching mechanics always were flawed and are now taking their
toll.
The root cause of Jacob deGrom's problems is
Premature Pronation or, more simply, the
Tommy John Twist. It's typically caused by cues like
Point the Ball at Second Base.
I LOVED how Jose Fernandez played the game. He was joy epitomized.
RIP.
However, the fact remains that Jose Fernandez's
pitching mechanics were highly flawed. As a result, he
needed Tommy John surgery after throwing just 225 MLB innings. He
then had shoulder problems after coming back from TJS.
Because of his obviously flawed pitching mechanics, I was able
to see both Jose Fernandez's
elbow and shoulder injuries coming months in advance.
For more information about Jose Fernandez, see my
analysis of Jose Fernandez's pitching mechanics at.
I discuss his injury in my
analysis of Sonny Gray's pitching mechanics. Which I put
together a week before his injury.
Contrary to what the coward
Jeff Passan says, I predicted both Matt
Harvey's elbow and shoulder problems months in advance.
My
analysis of Matt Harvey's pitching mechanics explains how I
saw his elbow injury coming, but here are some tweets from this
year that explain why I was concerned about his shoulder in
general and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in particular due to a
problem I call
Hyperabduction.
Named in my
2014 podcast with Will Leitch.
I love Tim Lincecum's stride and lower body, but he has an
Inverted L in his arm action that makes me nervous. I would
argue that Tim Lincecum's Inverted L explains why his velocity
has declined so dramatically.
Tim
Lincecum Pitching Mechanics Analysis
2007.12.12
Lincecum's still got a major timing problem that puts his
shoulder and elbow at risk, although his velocity drop suggests
that his shoulder may go first.
Baseball-Fever Thread
2011.4.15
I just put together a new piece that discusses
Flying Open (with the Glove) which I believe is Steven Matz's
core problem.
Named in my
2014 podcast with Will Leitch.
Jarrod Parker served as the basis for my piece on
Flat Arm Syndrome.
I have put together an
analysis of Mark Prior's pitching mechanics.
My
analysis of Alex Reyes' pitching mechanics goes into detail
about what concerned me, why, and when.
I have put together an
analysis of Anthony Reyes' pitching mechanics.
My January 2008 analysis of
BJ Ryan's pitching mechanics contained an extremely accurate
prediction.
I recently put together a summary of my views of
Stephen Strasburg's pitching mechanics.
Noah Syndergaard is one of the pitchers featured in my
piece on
vulnerable pitchers at the 2015 All-Star Break.
Named in my
2014 podcast with Will Leitch.
In June, people were saying Jason Vargas' forearm problems
were no big deal; totally
unrelated to any problem with his elbow. I disagreed. I thought
his forearm problems were a sign of an impending UCL failure.
My
analysis of Michael Wacha's pitching mechanics explains why I
knew he was going to get hurt again and why my opinion of him has
changed.
Below are some of my more relevant recent tweets about Michael
Wacha, starting with a reiteration of my concerns 27 minutes
before it was announced he was injured.
Yes, he's a reliever, and that will tend to reduce the
risk. However, I don't believe that Jordan Walden's mechanics will
allow him to last while being used in a regular set-up role.
Instead, I think the only way he will last is being used as a stopper,
not a regular set-up guy.
2015.04.23
I have put together a new piece called
The Truth About the Inverted W as a result of the repeated
failure of Dan Winkler's elbow.
I predicted Jordan Zimmermann's Tommy John Surgery back in 2007. Now it looks
like the Inverted L in his arm action may be starting to cause shoulder problems.
2015.04.14.
Misses
On occasion, I miss on a pitcher, usually because I miss
something. I then update my algorithm and rarely make that mistake
again.
In the case of Cliff Lee, what I missed was a moderate case of
Premature Pronation.
This was due in part to trying to please my critics and not
relying on still pictures. Now, I use all tools available, which
includes video and still pics.
When Things Change
Some of my misses are due to the fact that a pitcher's
mechanics change — or are changed — after being drafted and/or
in the major leagues. As a Cardinals fan, I find it incredibly
troubling that all these pitchers are Cardinals.
See my overview of
Trevor Rosenthal's pitching mechanics.
I have put together an
aanalysis of Michael Wacha's pitching mechanics
that explains why he got hurt despite my initial liking of him.
About The Author
Chris O'Leary never played baseball beyond grade school due
to a shoulder injury suffered due to poor pitching mechanics. As
a result, he is focused on ensuring that what happened to him
doesn't happen to anybody else.
The Epidemic is one way he hopes to achieve that goal.
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