2006 Predictions
5/22/2007
Sidney Ponson (Cardinals) - 2/28/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Worse Than Average
When I heard that the Cardinals had signed
Sidney Ponson (pdf),
I was immediately concerned. I believe that proper conditioning is
a key to staying healthy, and from what I have read Ponson doesn't
always keep himself in the best of shape. What's more, he shows
the ball to Center Field (which I believe increases the stress on
the elbow) and brings his pitching-arm-side elbow both above and
behind his shoulders (which I believe increases the stress on the
shoulder).
Barry Zito (A's) - 2/28/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Worse Than Average
I have heard good things about Barry
Zito (pdf), and know that he has been relatively injury-free, so I
decided to take a look at his motion. While he is cleaner than
most people, in some ways he reminds me of Sandy Koufax, which is
a cause for concern. First, his performance has fallen off since
2002, which suggests there might be something going on in his body
(especially in his elbow) that is causing him to wear down.
Second, he doesn't appear to have any terribly obvious flaws, but
he does do a few things (hooks his wrist and stiffens his
glove-side knee) that may cause him problems. Third, his general
mechanics are very Tom House (e.g. level upper arms with forearms
hanging down), which I find to be problematic given the problems
that
Mark Prior (.pdf)
has experienced.
Felix Hernandez (Mariners) - 2/27/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Worse Than Average
I was reading
Dr. Mike Marshall's 2006 Q&A file and saw that he made some
comments about Felix Hernandez. This led me to take my own look at
the pitching mechanics and motion of
Felix Hernandez (pdf).
While I do see some good things in Hernandez's motion, such as a
relative lack of reverse-rotation of the shoulders and keeping his
elbow below his shoulders (which should protect his rotator cuff),
I also saw two things that lead me to give him a worse than
average rating. First, I think he may start rotating his shoulders
before his PAS forearm is vertical, which may lead to problems
with his Labrum or his biceps muscle (ala Chris Carpenter).
Second, while it seems that he does pronate on some of his
pitches, he also seems to supinate. This will increase the
likelihood that he will have problems with his UCL.
Billy Wagner (Mets) - 2/21/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Worse Than Average
Many people have asked me to do an analysis of the motion and
mechanics of Billy
Wagner (pdf).
Well, I have just completed a first draft of an analysis of
Wagner's motion and don't like what I see. He seems to use nearly
every trick on the book to achieve his velocity, including
extending his glove-side knee as he turns his shoulders. To tell
the truth, I am surprised that his elbow has held up as long as it
has. This is likely due to the fact that he is a reliever and may
also be due to what I believe are some signs of
Early Pronation.
Roy Oswalt (Astros) - 2/17/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Better Than Average
I saw Roy
Oswalt (.pdf) pitch in the 2005 World Series and was intrigued by his
motion (despite the fact that, given that I am a Cardinals fan, I
loathe the Astros). Among other things, he seemed to have great shoulder rotation. I just completed an
analysis of his motion and mechanics and like what I see. First,
he does scap(ular) load to a degree, but keeps his elbows below
his shoulders which should protect his rotator cuff. Second, I see
signs of
Early Pronation, which should protect his elbow. Third, he
doesn't seem to start turning his shoulders until his pitching
forearm is vertical, which should protect his labrum. Max
Scherzer (Mizzou) - 2/17/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Worse Than Average
Over the weekend I came across an article in the St.
Louis Post-Dispatch talking about Mizzou pitcher
Max Scherzer. I managed to find a few pictures of him and feel
that he resembles Mark Prior in the he makes what some call an
Upside-Down W as he turns his pitching arm over. In doing this, he
brings his elbows above the level of his shoulders.
As a result, I expect that Max Scherzer will have serious elbow
problems as well as shoulder (especially rotator cuff) problems.
- Max Scherzer Update
5/2/2006:
Over the course of the season
shoulder tendonitis caused Scherzer to miss three starts. I
believe that this is related to the fact that Scherzer takes his
elbows both above and behind his shoulders.
- Max
Scherzer Update 5/18/2014: While he is an elbow
lifter Scherzer obviously hasn't had the problems that I
thought he would. His velocity is down, which isn't a good
sign, but he's lasted longer than I thought he would. I think
part of the explanation for this miss is that Scherzer employs
a trick that helps him work around his elbow lift.
Ian Kennedy (USC) - 2/17/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Worse Than Average
Ian
Kennedy (.pdf) is a USC pitcher that many people are very high on but
whose motion and mechanics remind me of Mark
Prior (.pdf),
Anthony Reyes (.pdf), and Paul
Byrd (.pdf). As a result, I expect that he will experience serious
elbow problems.
Anthony Reyes (Cardinals) -
2/17/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Worse Than Average
I had heard great things about Anthony Reyes (.pdf) during the 2005 season. However, when I got the
chance to see him I was very disturbed; his motion looks
remarkably like that of Mark
Prior (.pdf) and Paul
Byrd (.pdf), both of whom have had continual injury problems. As a
result, I believe that as soon as the Cardinals put a significant
load on him, he will start to break down (probably starting with
the elbow but I also see shoulder problems ahead as well).
Zach Duke (Pirates) - 2/17/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Better Than Average
A few weeks ago on the HSBaseballWeb discussion forum,
I found out that one of the parents in the forum had a son in the
majors named Zach Duke (.pdf). I took a look at his motion and, aside
from some concern about the fact that he stiffens his glove-side
leg as he releases the ball, I believe he should be healthier than
most other pitchers.
Freddy Garcia (White Sox) - 2/17/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Better Than Average
I also saw Freddy Garcia (.pdf) pitch in the 2005 World Series and was struck by
how early he got his pitching arm up. I believe that this reduces
the strain on his pitching arm and should keep his pitching arm
healthier than average over the next few years.
Mark Prior (Cubs) - 2/17/2006
Injury Risk Rating = Worse Than Average
One of the things that got me started on this whole project was a
piece that I came across entitled "Dr. Marshall Is No Fan Of Mark
Prior's Motion." In it
Dr. Mike Marshall analyzed Mark Prior's motion and mechanics
and predicted that Prior would experience a series of injuries. It
turned out that Dr. Marshall was right. I have since done
my
own analysis of Mark Prior's motion and mechanics (.pdf) and have
come to the same conclusion; that Mark Prior's motion and
mechanics, rather than being the "perfect" example that
Tom House has
labeled them, instead are quite problematic. As a result, I
believe that Prior will continue to have a worse than average
chance of experiencing elbow problems.
What's more, I believe I have
detected a problem in Mark Prior's motion, in which he takes his
elbows both above and behind his shoulders, that will leave him
vulnerable to problems with his rotator cuff.
- Mark Prior Update
2/27/2006: A report is circulating around the
Internet that says that Mark Prior is having problems with
shoulder tightness. This doesn't surprise me, given that it's
something that I predicted back at the end of 2005. I believe
the root cause of the problem is that he brings his elbows both
behind and above his shoulders.
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