Chris O'Leary's Tweets
About Alex Reyes

As I discuss in my analysis of Alex Reyes' pitching mechanics, Reyes has a serious — but increasingly common — flaw in his arm action that I call the...

• Tommy John Twist

Typically, and as it did in Alex Reyes' case, this flaw first gets a pitcher's elbow and then it gets their shoulder.

Increasing numbers of people are hearing about my work and following me on Twitter @thepainguy. What frustrates me is people are still asking members of the establishment if I might be on to something.

I hope my very consistent Tweets about Alex Reyes' prospects make it clear I am.

Why Tweets?

Before I get into what I've Tweeted when, let me explain one thing, first.

Why do I make predictions via tweet?

I tweet predictions because tweets are...

1. Time-Stamped
2. Not Editable

While that doesn't silence the haters, it does help reasonable people understand I'm not trying to trick anyone.

May 30,2018

I have followed Alex Reyes around the midwest — watching him rehab in Peoria, Springfield, and Memphis — to see if he made the changes to his pitching mechanics that are necessary to his staying healthy.

I saw no sign that he had, so I said the following about him — in response to all of the happy talk I was hearing — as I watched him as he made his return to the major leagues.

First it gets the elbow, then it gets the shoulder.

I sadly have little doubt it will be true for Alex Reyes as it has been for so many other pitchers.https://t.co/cRExBUSVCS pic.twitter.com/0LBgTMtJdx

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 30, 2018

The flaw in this Alex Reyes narrative is mechanics.

I don't see any changes, so I doubt anything will change health-wise.https://t.co/cRExBUSVCS

And if you don't believe me, AE Schafer of @vivaelbirdos thought enough of my analysis to plagiarize it.https://t.co/Cq4on2SvCH https://t.co/W5hU71BKjn

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 30, 2018

Why am I pessimistic about Alex Reyes' long-term prospects, especially given his dazzling rehab?

His Tommy John surgery fixed the problem, right?

Wrong.

Alex Reyes' Tommy John surgery addressed a SYMPTOM, not the ROOT CAUSE of his problems.https://t.co/cRExBUSVCS pic.twitter.com/XeHZ5LqLlE

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 30, 2018

While Alex Reyes has a number of problems, the closest thing to a root cause that you will find is what I call the Tommy John Twist.https://t.co/Cycd7zDhCF pic.twitter.com/Z6nzOrWOrv

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 30, 2018

Alex Reyes a week ago in Memphis.

This is the same Tommy John Twist that got Reyes' elbow.

Typically, it gets the shoulder next.https://t.co/cRExBUSVCS

AE Schaefer of @vivaelbirdos agrees. So much so that he just plagiarized my work.https://t.co/Cq4on2SvCH pic.twitter.com/5yEyyHnIDS

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 30, 2018

The problem with this pic of Alex Reyes is how his front foot is down and his shoulders are starting to turn.

However, his thumb is pointed down and his forearm is pronated, causing his pitching arm to be FLAT and not UP.

Which is a problem.https://t.co/6gerSg7uZj pic.twitter.com/0J0hm4sHZb

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 30, 2018

By way of comparison, here are pics of Alex Reyes from earlier on in his career.

Little to nothing of significance seems to have changed pitching mechanics-wise for Alex Reyes, so I don't see anything changing health-wise for him.https://t.co/cRExBUSVCS pic.twitter.com/ziJtbXx3lA

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 30, 2018

One of my pics of Alex Reyes from 2016 that shows the same basic pattern that concerns me.

His pitching arm side thumb is down and his pitching arm is FLAT and not UP as a result.

Which is a problem.

And which hasn't changed.https://t.co/zxLh9YLwMN pic.twitter.com/acPhPpOJg5

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 30, 2018

May 2018

I don't see any evidence Alex Reyes has changed what matters.

His pitching mechanics.https://t.co/cRExBUSVCS

And if you don't buy my analysis, read AE Schafer of @vivaelbirdos plagiarized version.https://t.co/Cq4on2SvCH https://t.co/pa61h0EYGQ

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 27, 2018

Drove to Memphis last night to see Alex Reyes pitch.

I was shooting in burst mode, so I ended up shooting 4,800 pics.

This one of the best I've found so far.

The only problem is it shows the Tommy John Twist and a Timing problem.https://t.co/Cycd7zDhCF pic.twitter.com/IIcSdavpcZ

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 26, 2018

One of the more telling pics of Alex Reyes pitching mechanics from a week ago in Peoria.

I don't see any evidence of changes.https://t.co/cRExBUSVCS

P.S. Plagiarizers like AE Schafer of @vivaelbirdos don't steal what they think is worthless or wrong. https://t.co/Cq4on2SvCH pic.twitter.com/mHe2gsgpnR

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 22, 2018

Alex Reyes yesterday.

I don't see any evidence anything has changed pitching mechanics wise so I don't believe anything will change health or injury wise.

Hopefully he'll last a year or two.

Tommy John Twist to start.https://t.co/Cycd7zDhCF pic.twitter.com/OQqW8fN9GM

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 20, 2018

Well I know that the mechanical pattern Alex Reyes employs very reliably gets elbows.

And then shoulders.

I mean, he's ALREADY needed Tommy John surgery, so what's next?https://t.co/cRExBUSVCS https://t.co/TxGK0NPjPC

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 15, 2018

Alex Reyes yesterday, this time at 120fps.

Again, I'm not encouraged by how his pitching arm is FLAT and not UP when his torso starts to turn.https://t.co/rH9ObB4qyx

P.S. Again this ruins @JeffPassan "Chris O'Leary (only) uses still photos narrative."https://t.co/tqBRYNKyy9 pic.twitter.com/rDbXBIQG4M

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 15, 2018

Alex Reyes yesterday at 240fps.

The concern is how his pitching arm is FLAT and not UP when his torso starts to turn (again, watch the "C").https://t.co/rH9ObB4qyx

P.S. Please do NOT forward this to @JeffPassan or you'll blow his whole narrative.https://t.co/tqBRYNKyy9 pic.twitter.com/A8kQJsl7NK

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 15, 2018

While there appears to be a significant Elbow Extension/Flexion difference between Alex Reyes in 2014 and 2018, I'm not sure there's a significant External Rotation difference.

And ER is what matters when it comes to Timing.

And injuries.https://t.co/zxLh9YLwMN pic.twitter.com/jLz44Lp2I1

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 15, 2018

Problem with this first Alex Reyes sequence?

See how his pitching arm is pronated (thumb down) as his glove side starts to pull, his shoulders start to turn, and the "C" of the "Chiefs" logo rotates into view.

Premature Pronation > Timing Problemhttps://t.co/6gerSg7uZj pic.twitter.com/F6meuaSuIw

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 15, 2018

Maybe this photo that AE Schafer used in his analysis of Alex Reyes that "borrows" heavily from my work shows a slightly worse position than what I saw last night, but I'm not convinced that difference is meaningful.

What I saw last night was plenty bad. pic.twitter.com/94xfNGmlld

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 15, 2018

Alex Reyes pitched last night in Peoria, so I made the 3-hour drive to go see him. Here's a super-mega-ultra thread that gives my impressions.

In sum?

I don't see any evidence Alex Reyes has eliminated his Tommy John Twist.

Which is a huge problem.https://t.co/Cycd7zDhCF pic.twitter.com/BgxxVBIDOV

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 15, 2018

Still seeing a significant Tommy John Twist in Alex Reyes pitching mechanics.

Which is bad. pic.twitter.com/2NAgQoxgbl

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 14, 2018

And one last May 2018 tweet that comments on a Craig Mish tweet about Alex Reyes. Mish blocked me on Twitter for being too negative.

See how Alex Reyes' front foot is DOWN and his pitching arm is FLAT and not UP?

That's bad.

And exactly what I expected to see given his rehab protocol.

First it gets the elbow, then it gets the shoulder.https://t.co/rH9ObB4qyx https://t.co/2ERutMpY6v

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) May 10, 2018

Winter/Spring 2018

The little I saw of Alex Reyes during Spring Training 2018 didn't make me feel any better.

I see a non-trivial risk that Alex Reyes stumbles — if not breaks — before he has a chance to come back from his elbow problems.https://t.co/zxLh9YLwMN pic.twitter.com/M2z8aOSD4d

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) February 12, 2018

Here's the root of my concern about Alex Reyes.

Premature Pronation https://t.co/6gerSg7uZj

...leads to...

Flat Arm Syndrome https://t.co/rH9ObB4qyx

Nothing's changed, so nothing will change. pic.twitter.com/I0csTGfbl7

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) February 12, 2018

This clip of Alex Reyes shows the same problems. And over active glove side I’ve pointed out before and that contributes to his Timing problem. https://t.co/nEtdXjVlXp

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) February 12, 2018

No sign of improvement in the Timing of Alex Reyes. Premature Pronation and Flat Arm Syndrome. He needs to be used as a reliever. https://t.co/aDr57HVkUB

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) February 12, 2018

I would hope the rapidity with which Alex Reyes needed Tommy John surgery makes it clear that he won't hold up as a starting pitcher.

And maybe not even as a multi-inning reliever.

Nothing's changed so nothing will change.https://t.co/cRExBUSVCS pic.twitter.com/3OFVxr9m7p

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) February 5, 2018

Just read a comparison of Alex Reyes to Justin Verlander.

I guess, if you ignore mechanics, durability, longevity, role...

In truth, Alex Reyes employs the Tommy John Twist, maybe even the TJ-T, which is why Reyes is a reliever, not a starter. At best. https://t.co/lk6VNBcnRF pic.twitter.com/sicNCKXgX9

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) January 1, 2018

Does Alex Reyes have a Timing problem?

I don't know. Let's shoot some high speed video of him from behind and see what his External Rotation is when his pitching arm side elbow starts coming around.

Like I did.

Just takes some initiative, planning, patience, & persistence. pic.twitter.com/kaVUWkJzTb

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) November 16, 2017

If Alex Reyes doesn't fix the root causes of the problem, which is Flat Arm Syndrome: https://t.co/rH9ObB4qyx that is caused by the Tommy John Twist https://t.co/Cycd7zDhCF, and I see no sign that he has, he WILL break again.

Just a matter of time.

P.S. Same thing got Rosie. pic.twitter.com/97VCzGqttJ

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) November 15, 2017

"Alex Reyes has already had Tommy John surgery. He got it out of the way."

Heard @CharlieMarlow_ say this this AM. Two problems...

1. Fatalistic nonsense.
2. TJS now means other problems later.

TJS is a SYMPTOM not a root cause. https://t.co/cRExBUSVCS pic.twitter.com/aEB32BY7WF

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) November 15, 2017

July 2017

I had concerns about Alex Reyes' pitching mechanics — that he hadn't changed anything — from literally the first pitch he threw during his rehab.

Why don't I like what I see in Alex Reyes' rehab? See how his arm is flat when shoulders start to turn? That's bad. https://t.co/FMK4qnWaRt pic.twitter.com/UlFyirTe5s

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) July 21, 2017

HATE, HATE, HATE the drill @AlexReyes_67 is doing in this clip. I know it's a thing, but it teaches flying open. https://t.co/FMK4qnWaRt https://t.co/VuWu0qnXHm

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) July 21, 2017

January 2017

As 2017 got started, and I started thinking about Spring Training and the Cardinals. I had been doing a lot of thinking about the Tommy John Twist (aka Premature Pronation) and, looking back at some older photos of Alex Reyes, I started getting increasingly concerned.

Good visualization of my concerns a/b Alex Reyes. PP at foot plant https://t.co/6gerSg7uZj leads to Timing problem. https://t.co/DVXMWn8wdp pic.twitter.com/IpILnQU7NP

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) January 12, 2017

Don't know if mentioned it before, but troubling signs of Premature Pronation in Alex Reyes. Ala Kopech, H Harvey. https://t.co/6gerSg7uZj pic.twitter.com/Q6BoRgCX2P

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) January 14, 2017

4 reasons stated do NOT like how Cardinals have shortened stride of Alex Reyes. Tried 2 shorten stride of @Tsunamy27 https://t.co/C60uyTp418 https://t.co/Lq4LdLQnyO

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) January 14, 2017

. @dgoold Two concerns with Alex Reyes. 1. Short-striding = FAS. https://t.co/rH9ObB4qyx 2. Premature Pronation. https://t.co/6gerSg7uZj pic.twitter.com/BTUIkE22k6

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) February 14, 2017

On February 15, 2017 it was announced that Alex Reyes needed Tommy John surgery.

It was sadly obvious what was next.

First it gets the elbow, then it gets the shoulder.

HATE it, but have to assume that is pattern Alex Reyes will follow. If nothing changes. pic.twitter.com/a5GAESS3Om

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) February 15, 2017

Over the Years

I've been expressing concern about Alex Reyes' pitching mechanics since photos of him started appearing on the Internet.

Alex Reyes makes me nervous. Elbow and also shoulder. pic.twitter.com/J1i0iMckOb

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) March 31, 2014

Alex Reyes will not last as a starter. At least not throwing that hard. Puts too much torque on his arm. https://t.co/43oTdJmVYd

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) August 10, 2016

Yes, Alex Reyes of the Cardinals throws hard, but his pitching mechanics don't tend to work for starters. @dgoold pic.twitter.com/mZKB19o7GU

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) June 26, 2015

"Alex Reyes had no big red flags in terms of his delivery or pitching mechanics" https://t.co/tXHgLGdVxR Uh... pic.twitter.com/IQdOtT6qEh

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) September 30, 2015

Given current pitching mechanics and timing, Alex Reyes profiles as reliever. Closer? "Reyes hits bump in the road" https://t.co/8qiGVTQn1Z

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) November 4, 2015

Classic scouting "analysis." Entirely subjective. 100% naked eye. Praises points of concern of Alex Reyes delivery. https://t.co/G0nDbqptlo

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) January 7, 2016

Now I want to vomit. Idiocy is in the Cardinals. "TCN 2016 Cardinals Prospect #1: Alex Reyes - St. Louis - Scout" https://t.co/ff4oL2rR72

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) January 8, 2016

Alex Reyes @AlexReyes_67 last night at 100mph. If he wants to start, needs less glove pull. Less early pronation. pic.twitter.com/BKHdb7athC

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) June 14, 2016

Hate to say it, but Alex Reyes' tempo says Noah Syndergaard to me.

Reyes is a reliever if wants to throw hard. https://t.co/6eImO1Jh9J

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) July 11, 2016

Here's the thing about Alex Reyes; see how his arm is up and his foot is down? But he's already pulled with glove... https://t.co/HM4BKQFUsi

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) August 9, 2016

Bit less pessimistic about Alex Reyes. Fairly Cliff Lee. But some Tommy John Twist ala Lee. https://t.co/BH5JNCX0Zm pic.twitter.com/SKVRiEvL7S

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) August 9, 2016

Concern w/ Alex Reyes is: 1. Short-striding. 2. Premature Pronation at foot plant. Reliever. https://t.co/6gerSfPTAJ pic.twitter.com/EzB4cOAInP

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) September 7, 2016

This is why Alex Reyes concerns me. I've seen worse, but... #Timing https://t.co/rH9ObBm1q5 pic.twitter.com/XGDhz5WnCl

— Chris O'Leary (@thepainguy) September 24, 2016